SpaceX Is Going Public — Should I Buy?

 Honestly, when I first saw the news, 

my immediate reaction wasn't "let me research this."

It was: "What does this have to do with me?"

I'm just a regular salaried dad, slowly building my portfolio one paycheck at a time. 

A company like SpaceX feels like it belongs to Wall Street giants — not someone like me.

But I kept thinking about it. And I decided it's worth talking about.


First, Let's Understand How Big This Actually Is

SpaceX has officially filed its S-1 with the SEC and is heading to Nasdaq.

Expected fundraising: USD 75 billion.
Market valuation: USD 1.75 trillion.
Reported order book: Over USD 250 billion 

more than 3x oversubscribed.

This would break the record previously held by Saudi Aramco for the largest IPO in history.


Why Is This Company Worth So Much?

Most people think of SpaceX as a rocket company. 

The kind that burns through cash and promises a future on Mars.

But the story has changed.

The real engine behind that USD 1.75 trillion valuation is Starlink — SpaceX's satellite internet service.

In 2025, Starlink generated USD 11.4 billion in revenue with over 10 million subscribers worldwide.

Think about what that actually means. They've built a network of satellites orbiting the Earth and are charging people for internet access globally. 

And here's the part that matters for investors: it's nearly impossible for competitors to replicate. You can't just launch 10,000 satellites from your backyard.

On top of that, SpaceX merged with Elon Musk's AI company xAI earlier this year. 

So now you have one entity covering rockets, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure.

It's the kind of story Wall Street loves. And they're paying for it.


But Here's What Most Headlines Won't Tell You

There's a number I think deserves more attention:

SpaceX lost USD 4.9 billion in 2025.

Yes — the company valued at USD 1.75 trillion posted a net loss of nearly five billion dollars last year.

They're spending aggressively — Starship testing, AI infrastructure, satellite deployment. All of it costs money. A lot of it.

Morningstar, one of the more respected research firms, put their fair value estimate at USD 63 per share.

The IPO is priced at USD 135 per share.

That's more than double. On day one.


So — Should I Buy?

As a regular investor who dollar-cost averages every month, my answer is simple:

Not on day one.

This isn't about whether SpaceX is a great company. It probably is. The issue is what you're actually buying at IPO.

When a stock is 3x oversubscribed and everyone is excited, you're not buying the business — you're buying the emotion. And a lot of the good news for the next several years is already baked into that USD 135 price tag.

All it takes is one small disappointment — a regulatory delay, a failed launch, a quarterly miss — and the correction can be brutal.

I've learned this the hard way. Buying into hype at peak excitement rarely ends well for the average investor.


How Can You Participate Without the Full Risk?

If you genuinely believe in SpaceX's long-term story, there are more measured ways to get exposure:

Wait for the dust to settle. After the first or second earnings report, when the excitement fades and valuation comes back closer to reality, that's a more sensible entry point.

Look at space or innovation ETFs. Some ETFs already hold SpaceX positions from the private market. Less volatility, still some upside.

Only use money you can afford to lose. High-valuation, high-growth stocks like this are not for your emergency fund or your children's school fees. If you invest, size it accordingly.


The Bigger Lesson Here

SpaceX going public reminded me of something I keep coming back to in my own investing journey.

The hardest part of investing isn't finding a great company.

It's staying rational when the whole world is celebrating.

When everyone is rushing to buy, the brave thing — the actually difficult thing — is to pause, look at the numbers, and ask yourself honestly:

"At this price, am I buying value — or am I buying excitement?"

Rockets can fly to Mars.

But our wallets need to stay on the ground.

Same plan for me. Keep investing. Keep it boring. One paycheck at a time.


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